The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee

Nbers business cycle dating committee dated 9 20 10 biblical courtship stories The United States economy has lost more jobs than it has added since the recovery began in June a year ago. As many economists had expected, this official end date makes the most recent downturn the longest since World War II. This recent recession, having begun in December 2007, lasted 18 months. Until now the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-5 and 1981-2, which each lasted 16 months. The newly-declared end-date to the recession also confirms nbers business cycle dating committee dated 9 20 10 many had suspected. The 2007-9 recession was the deepest on record since the Cojmittee Depression, at least in terms of job losses.

the national bureau of economic research nber dated the last business cycle as having

Below is a chart of ECRI's smoothed year-over-year percent change since 2000 of their weekly leading index. Economic activity rarely proceeds in a straight line, and it is common for growth to fluctuate above and below trend through a long cycle. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. As a result, many people are warning that a recession is just around the corner. In the prosperity phase we typically see rising interest rates, inflation, overall economic optimism, economic activity and high income.

us business cycle

The chronology comprises alternating dates of peaks and troughs in economic activity. A recession is a period between a peak and a trough, and an expansion is a period between a trough and a peak. During a recession, a significant decline in economic activity spreads across the economy and can last from a few months to more than a year. Similarly, during an expansion, economic activity rises substantially, spreads across the economy, and usually lasts for several years. In both recessions and expansions, brief reversals in economic activity may occur-a recession may include a short period of expansion followed by further decline; an expansion may include a short period of contraction followed by further growth.

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